不同气候地区武警战士脂质氧化-抗氧化水平的研究

目的　探讨气候因素对不同地区的武警战士脂质氧化抗氧化系统的影响和可能的生物学意义。方法　从 6个不同气候地区随机抽取健康男性武警战士共 1 0 0 0人 ,采用试剂盒测定各项指标。结果　 6个不同地区武警战士的超氧化物歧化酶 (SOD)、谷胱甘肽过氧化物酶 (GSH Px)活力及谷胱甘肽 (GSH)浓度比较 ,差异有显著性 (P <0 0 5 )。SOD和GSH Px在不同气候地区间呈相似的变化趋势 ,GSH渐升后突降 ,而丙二醛 (MDA)浓度各地区间比较 ,差异均无显著性 (P >0 0 5 )。结论　气候因素对武警战士的脂质抗氧化酶活力有影响 ,寒冷和炎热地区武警战士血浆中SOD、GSH Px活力较低 ,但气候因素对脂质过氧化物MDA的含量无明显影响     

上海生活垃圾清运量数据分析及预测

通过对2005--2010年上海各区县生活垃圾清运量与常住人口、经济发展水平的相关性分析表明：上海生活垃圾产生量随着人口增加还将维持增长态势,但中心城区和郊区的增长率随着人口迁移和经济发展水平不同已出现明显分化;上海生活垃圾产生量随GDP的变化垃圾总量仍将持续增长,但增长幅度有放缓趋势。     

甘肃省卫生人力资源公平性及预测研究

目的对甘肃省卫生人力资源配置现状及公平性进行分析,对2019—2023年需求数量进行预测,为甘肃省卫生人力资源发展规划提供参考建议。方法运用洛伦兹曲线和基尼系数对甘肃省卫生人力资源配置的公平性进行研究;运用时间序列模型对甘肃省2019—2023年卫生人力资源需求量进行预测。结果 2018年甘肃省所属每千人口卫生技术人员、执业(助理)医师和注册护士分别为5.2名、2.0名和1.9名。按人口配置的基尼系数均小于0.4的临界值;按地理配置的基尼系数均超过0.6,处于高度不公平状态。预测到2023年甘肃省卫生技术人员、执业(助理)医师和注册护士的人数分别为167 471人、40 534人和53 657人。结论甘肃省卫生人力资源配置的人口公平性优于地理公平性;卫生人力资源发展速度缓慢,医护比不合理,全省医疗人力资源不足;甘肃省在未来五年对卫生人力资源的需求量很大,需要进一步重视卫生人力资源的开发,扩大人才队伍建设规模。     

Global air quality and health co-benefits of mitigating near-term climate change through methane and black carbon emission controls

Background: Tropospheric ozone and black carbon (BC), a component of fine particulate matter (PM ≤ 2.5 µm in aerodynamic diameter; PM_2.5), are associated with premature mortality and they disrupt global and regional climate.Objectives: We examined the air quality and health benefits of 14 specific emission control measures targeting BC and methane, an ozone precursor, that were selected because of their potential to reduce the rate of climate change over the next 20–40 years.Methods: We simulated the impacts of mitigation measures on outdoor concentrations of PM_2.5 and ozone using two composition-climate models, and calculated associated changes in premature PM_2.5- and ozone-related deaths using epidemiologically derived concentration–response functions.Results: We estimated that, for PM_2.5 and ozone, respectively, fully implementing these measures could reduce global population-weighted average surface concentrations by 23–34% and 7–17% and avoid 0.6–4.4 and 0.04–0.52 million annual premature deaths globally in 2030. More than 80% of the health benefits are estimated to occur in Asia. We estimated that BC mitigation measures would achieve approximately 98% of the deaths that would be avoided if all BC and methane mitigation measures were implemented, due to reduced BC and associated reductions of nonmethane ozone precursor and organic carbon emissions as well as stronger mortality relationships for PM_2.5 relative to ozone. Although subject to large uncertainty, these estimates and conclusions are not strongly dependent on assumptions for the concentration–response function.Conclusions: In addition to climate benefits, our findings indicate that the methane and BC emission control measures would have substantial co-benefits for air quality and public health worldwide, potentially reversing trends of increasing air pollution concentrations and mortality in Africa and South, West, and Central Asia. These projected benefits are independent of carbon dioxide mitigation measures. Benefits of BC measures are underestimated because we did not account for benefits from reduced indoor exposures and because outdoor exposure estimates were limited by model spatial resolution.     

Air quality and exercise-related health benefits from reduced car travel in the midwestern United States

Background: Automobile exhaust contains precursors to ozone and fine particulate matter (PM ≤ 2.5 µm in aerodynamic diameter; PM_2.5), posing health risks. Dependency on car commuting also reduces physical fitness opportunities.Objective: In this study we sought to quantify benefits from reducing automobile usage for short urban and suburban trips.Methods: We simulated census-tract level changes in hourly pollutant concentrations from the elimination of automobile round trips ≤ 8 km in 11 metropolitan areas in the upper midwestern United States using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. Next, we estimated annual changes in health outcomes and monetary costs expected from pollution changes using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Benefits Mapping Analysis Program (BenMAP). In addition, we used the World Health Organization Health Economic Assessment Tool (HEAT) to calculate benefits of increased physical activity if 50% of short trips were made by bicycle.Results: We estimate that, by eliminating these short automobile trips, annual average urban PM_2.5 would decline by 0.1 µg/m³ and that summer ozone (O₃) would increase slightly in cities but decline regionally, resulting in net health bene-fits of $4.94 billion/year [95% confidence interval (CI): $0.2 billion, $13.5 billion), with 25% of PM_2.5 and most O₃ bene-fits to populations outside metropolitan areas. Across the study region of approximately 31.3 million people and 37,000 total square miles, mortality would decline by approximately 1,295 deaths/year (95% CI: 912, 1,636) because of improved air quality and increased exercise. Making 50% of short trips by bicycle would yield savings of approximately $3.8 billion/year from avoided mortality and reduced health care costs (95% CI: $2.7 billion, $5.0 billion]. We estimate that the combined benefits of improved air quality and physical fitness would exceed $8 billion/year.Conclusion: Our findings suggest that significant health and economic benefits are possible if bicycling replaces short car trips. Less dependence on automobiles in urban areas would also improve health in downwind rural settings.     

Dynamics of cholera outbreaks in Great Lakes region of Africa, 1978-2008

Cholera outbreaks have occurred in Burundi, Rwanda, Democratic Republic of Congo, Tanzania, Uganda, and Kenya almost every year since 1977-1978, when the disease emerged in these countries. We used a multiscale, geographic information system-based approach to assess the link between cholera outbreaks, climate, and environmental variables. We performed time-series analyses and field investigations in the main affected areas. Results showed that cholera greatly increased during El Nino warm events (abnormally warm El Ninos) but decreased or remained stable between these events. Most epidemics occurred in a few hotspots in lakeside areas, where the weekly incidence of cholera varied by season, rainfall, fluctuations of plankton, and fishing activities. During lull periods, persistence of cholera was explained by outbreak dynamics, which suggested a metapopulation pattern, and by endemic foci around the lakes. These links between cholera outbreaks, climate, and lake environments need additional, multidisciplinary study.     

香港地区流行性腮腺炎月发病例数SARIMA模型预测分析

目的研究季节性差分自回归滑动平均模型（SARIMA）拟合季节时间序列的方法,并将其应用于预测香港流行性腮腺炎疫情趋势。方法利用R软件对2000年1月至2012年8月香港流行性腮腺炎月发病例数资料进行建模,用所构建模型进行预测分析。结果流行性腮腺炎发病呈上升趋势,SARIMA（2,1,1）×（1,1,1）。：模型较好地拟合了香港流行性腮腺炎的月发病例数,模型残差为白噪声序列,回代考核平均相对误差为17．5％;后8个月的数据作为前瞻性预测考核,平均相对误差为16．4％。结论SARIMA模型较好地模拟腮腺炎的流行特征,并进行中、短期预测。     

北京市建筑垃圾产生量预测及处置设施建设分布研究

利用SPSS软件,通过选取北京市GDP、商品房销售面积、建筑施工面积3个自变量建立多元回归方程,对"十二五"时期北京市建筑垃圾产生量进行预测;并依据预测结果结合各区县发展定位,对建筑垃圾处置设施分布进行合理布点和处置设施建设规模研究.     

Therapy in a subtropical climate for children with cerebral palsy. Evidence of physical and psychosocial effects?

Aim: To assess a possible therapeutic effect in children and adolescents with cerebral palsy of a habilitation programme in a warm sunny climate.
Methods: Fifty-seven children and adolescents with cerebral palsy, all integrated with normal functioning children through mainstream schooling, received an individualized four-week habilitation programme at a habilitation centre in Lanzarote in the Canary Islands. They were clinically assessed before and after treatment, and again after three and six months. The clinical tests included gross motor function measure (GMFM) and the paediatric evaluation of disability inventory (PEDI). Mental health and self-esteem were assessed by using the youth self report (YSR), the child behaviour checklist (CBCL) and the Harter's self-perception profile. We also used focus-group interviews on all 57 parents by the end of the treatment period.
Results: The study revealed some improvements in the level of physical performance. The most striking finding, however, was the lasting effect on behavioural and emotional parameters and the children's self-esteem.
Conclusion: Training in a warm climate may explain some of this positive effect. However, based on the focus-group interviews and its quantitative findings a more plausible explanation may be the interaction in a social setting with others in a similar situation.